Occam’s Razor and Reflective Pools
Let Science Be Our G
The absurdity surrounding the Reflecting Pool in Washington, D.C., makes me think of Occam’s Razor, which suggests that, among the many hypotheses competing for an explanation or solution to a problem or occurrence, the one with the fewest assumptions is typically the most viable. Simple explanations can lead us to our desired answer more reliably than complex ones.
Far-fetched rationalizations of a phenomenon are just that: unconvincing, unlikely, and implausible. Let’s consider the iconic monument in D.C.
On its face, maintaining and improving the Reflecting Pool is a worthwhile endeavor. From Martin Luther King Jr.’s I Have a Dream speech to Jenny wading toward Forest Gump after years apart in the eponymously-named film, the Pool has served as a stage backdrop for American history, both in real life and in the movies. It is a centerpiece of our national identity.
But it’s one thing to say you’re going to improve it, and then there’s actually understanding what is required to do so.
Greenwater makes Green Water
Let’s quickly run it down.
Donald Trump, the Great Builder, sought to refurbish the Reflecting Pool in time for the country’s 250th birthday celebration. Among the dubiously qualified contractors, he hired Greenwater Systems, run by John J. Cafaro, a longtime Trump donor, for a $1.7 million no-bid contract to accomplish the task. The pool was drained, the liner was refurbished and painted a dark “American flag” blue, and then refilled with water from the Potomac River.
Days after the work was ostensibly completed, an algal bloom turned the pool water green, despite Greenwater Systems’ task of keeping the water clean. Hydrogen peroxide was then dumped into the pool to kill the algae. Soon after, the dark blue paint began peeling off in large chunks, reportedly due to poor material choice and preparation, and exacerbated by the chemical bath used to kill the algae. In any case, hydrogen peroxide is only a temporary fix, at best, for controlling algal blooms.
Immediately, the explanation from the Trump regime strained credulity. A coterie of “radical left lunatics” and “bureaucrats” suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome “loaded the pipes with algae.” That surely explains the green water. It was a lone wolf who, after donning what surely must have been an invisible man suit, waded in with a box cutter and proceeded to carve a 300-foot gash in the blue paint.
What that explanation needs is Occam’s Razor. With it, we can shave down the explanation to poor material preparation, dark blue’s tendency to reflect heat, a river oversaturated with pollutants, particularly phosphates, summer, and–wait for it–climate change.
As Sarah Kaplan explains in the Washington Post, still, shallow water loaded with phosphates, languishing under the humid northeast summer heat, is the perfect breeding ground for algae. The pool was drained and then refilled with water from the Potomac, a river heavily laden with pollution, phosphates, and agricultural runoff. No mystery there. No wild-eyed vandals. Just algae growing and spreading as it does.
A Science Experiment on the National Mall
Once the pool was refilled, nature took its course. The Reflecting Pool became a 2000-foot science experiment. A monument-sized Petrie dish. A breeding ground for algae, supercharged under the humid, warming summer heat and further amplified by the dark, American flag blue pool liner reflecting the heat. Not the kind of “reflection” intended, I assume.
The gallon jugs of hydrogen peroxide added to the murky water reacted with the poorly planned liner, causing it to peel.
Did a cabal of left-leaning radical “thugs” and bureaucrats seed the water with an algae bloom and then proceed to slash the liner in the dead of night, in the middle of Washington, D.C., very near arguably the most guarded building on the planet?
Well, it’s possible. But is that really the most reasonable, simple explanation? Or was it simply water already contaminated with phosphorus shunted into a large, still, shallow pool and left to cook under the sweltering heat of summer, amplified by climate change and a dark blue pool liner?
Which of these scenarios is the most repeatable? Which one actually makes the most sense, regardless of one’s politics?
Funny, Not Funny
It’s easy to mock the fiasco surrounding the Reflecting Pool. But the shits and giggles fade when considering the bigger picture. Firstly, few will find comfort in seeing an iconic American monument abused by mismanagement and vanity. But even more disquieting is the disregard for science, for critical thinking, and for Occam’s Razor.
We live in challenging, divisive times. I am not naive enough to think that bias, belief, and tightly held worldviews don’t shade how we interpret events and phenomena. When we abandon rigorous, well-established science to chase wild conspiracy theories, we fail to serve any constructive purpose. No problems are solved, or challenges met.
Occam’s Razor shaves away the delusion, helping us to find the path of the simplest and surest path to the truth.
Image courtesy of Stuart Rankin on Flickr under a Creative Commons license